With five games left to play, the Premier League relegation battle has narrowed down to what looks increasingly like a straight shootout between Tottenham and West Ham. Wolves are already down. Burnley are heading the same way. The real question is which London club joins them in the Championship next season.
Tottenham’s freefall makes them the prime relegation candidate
The numbers are brutal. Spurs have not won a single league game in 2026, stretching their winless run to 15 matches. Only Derby County in 2007-08 (18 games) and Sunderland in 2002-03 (17 games) have started a calendar year with a longer top-flight drought — and both clubs were relegated that season. That historical parallel should terrify every Tottenham supporter.
Roberto De Zerbi declared after the draw with Brighton that his squad is capable of winning five games in a row. Frankly, nothing in Spurs’ recent performances supports that claim. Since beating Crystal Palace on 28 December, they have taken just six points from 15 matches. Their home record is appalling — only Sheffield Wednesday, already relegated from the Championship, wins fewer home games in English professional football right now.
Former Liverpool defender Jamie Carragher doesn’t mince his words : “I see West Ham beating Brentford and Leeds and staying up at the expense of Tottenham.” Ex-West Ham striker Dean Ashton went further, saying he simply does not see “the character or mindset” in Spurs to pull off a great escape. When pundits of that calibre agree, it carries weight.
Tottenham must also avoid equalling their worst-ever winless league run — set between 1934 and 1935, 91 years ago. Saturday’s trip to already-relegated Wolves is non-negotiable. Lose that, and the conversation shifts from difficult to almost impossible.
West Ham’s momentum vs a brutal fixture list
West Ham are not safe either, and their run-in is arguably the hardest of any relegation-threatened side. Here’s what the Hammers face over their last five games :
- Home vs Everton
- Away at Brentford
- Home vs Arsenal (title-chasing)
- Away at Newcastle (St James’ Park)
- Home vs Leeds (final day)
Arsenal at the London Stadium on 10 May stands out as a near-impossible fixture for a team fighting relegation. Still, West Ham have taken 19 points from their last 12 league games — the best recent form of any club in the drop zone. Nuno Espírito Santo said it plainly on BBC’s Match of the Day : “We have a mission ahead and keep going.” That’s not just spin — the Hammers look like a team that believes it can survive.
There’s one uncomfortable historical footnote, though. West Ham hold the record for the most points ever accumulated by a relegated Premier League side — 42 points in 2002-03, and it still wasn’t enough. Momentum counts for little if the fixtures don’t cooperate.
Where Leeds and Nottingham Forest actually stand
Both clubs have put some distance between themselves and the bottom three, but neither can afford complacency just yet.
| Club | Points | Points from last 12-14 games | Gap to drop zone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | ~38 | 18 from 13 | 5 points |
| Leeds United | ~39 | 18 from 14 | 8 points |
Dean Ashton’s view is that 39 points should be enough for Leeds to survive. Historically, that benchmark holds up — 36 points have secured safety in every Premier League season since 2015-16, and only six clubs in a 38-game format have ever been relegated with 39 or more. The last time that happened was when Birmingham City and Blackpool both went down on 39 points, 14 seasons ago.
Nottingham Forest’s position is more complicated. Vitor Pereira’s side faces away trips to Chelsea and Manchester United in May, with the Chelsea game arriving just three days before their Europa League semi-final second leg against Aston Villa. Jamie Carragher’s advice is sharp : “If I am the manager of Nottingham Forest, why not go all in on the next game at Sunderland — win that, and they’re on 39 points and pretty much there.” A result at Sunderland on Friday would dramatically reduce the pressure ahead of that brutal end-of-season schedule.
The run-in could decide everything before the final day
Fixture timing matters more than people admit. Tottenham’s schedule looks manageable on paper — Wolves away, then a home game against Leeds on 11 May, followed by Aston Villa sandwiched between Europa League semi-final legs. Villa may field a rotated side. Chelsea and Everton round off Spurs’ season, both chasing European spots, which makes neither a comfortable proposition.
The real insight here is that Spurs need to bank points immediately, not rely on late-season drama. It is 49 years since Tottenham were in the relegation zone at this stage of a season — that was 1976-77, and they went down. History doesn’t repeat itself automatically, but the structural weaknesses this squad has shown all year don’t disappear overnight.
The smart money, right now, sits on Tottenham dropping into the Championship alongside Wolves and Burnley. West Ham’s form gives them a real shot at survival despite the difficult fixtures. Leeds look close to safe. Forest need one more good result to breathe freely. The most fascinating subplot remaining is whether De Zerbi can trigger a response that nobody has seen from this squad since October — because without it, the outcome feels almost inevitable.
