Arsenal hold a commanding position at the top of the Premier League heading into the final stretch of the 2025-26 season. After their convincing win over Fulham on Saturday, May 2, the Gunners have handed themselves a genuine edge over Manchester City in what has become one of the tightest title battles in recent memory. The gap is slim, but the dynamics are shifting — and fast.
Fixtures and momentum tip the scales toward Arsenal
Numbers rarely lie in football. If Arsenal win their next three Premier League fixtures, Manchester City will face a near-impossible task to reclaim top spot without dropping points themselves. That pressure of perpetual catch-up is exactly what former Arsenal forward Paul Merson highlighted on Sky Sports after the Fulham result. “In his wildest dreams, Arteta could not have asked for anything better,” he said, pointing out that always needing to win — rather than just wanting to — wears a squad down mentally and physically.
Merson went further, suggesting that if both sides win every remaining match, the title could ultimately be decided on goal difference. Critically, he believes Arsenal hold the stronger hand even in that scenario, based on the calibre of their upcoming opponents. Jamie Redknapp echoed that view on Sky Sports : “If it goes to goal difference, I see Arsenal having the big advantage when you look at the games.” That is not a minor footnote — it could be the defining factor.
Here is a snapshot of the key talking points surrounding both clubs’ situations right now :
- Arsenal’s remaining fixtures are widely considered more manageable than City’s
- Manchester City face a congested schedule with little room for rotation
- Mikel Arteta has the luxury of managing his players’ workload more carefully
- Both Merson and Redknapp back Arsenal, though neither dismisses City’s capacity to explode
Redknapp was careful not to overstate Arsenal’s advantage though : “I think Arsenal are favourites, but I don’t think they are 80% favourites.” That caveat matters. City have demolished opponents before when cornered, and a fully motivated Erling Haaland remains one of the most disruptive forces in European football.
Wayne Rooney’s bold call vs Joe Hart’s City loyalty
Two former England internationals have staked out very different positions on who lifts the trophy — and neither is sitting on the fence. Speaking on BBC Match of the Day, Wayne Rooney went further than most pundits, predicting not just an Arsenal title but a “comfortable five-point margin”. “I think Arsenal will win it,” he said plainly. “The fixtures are more favourable. I think they will win every game and Man City will slip up.”
That level of confidence is notable coming from Rooney, who spent his career at rival clubs and has no particular allegiance to north London. His reasoning is fixture-based and form-based. Arsenal have led the Premier League table for the majority of the season — a fact that speaks volumes about their consistency under Arteta. City’s schedule, packed with games coming thick and fast, gives them far less breathing space.
| Pundit | Platform | Prediction | Margin forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Rooney | BBC Match of the Day | Arsenal | ~5 points |
| Paul Merson | Sky Sports | Arsenal (by fixtures) | Possibly goal difference |
| Jamie Redknapp | Sky Sports | Arsenal favourites | Goal difference likely |
| Joe Hart | — | Manchester City | Quality of spine decisive |
Joe Hart disagrees — firmly. A two-time Premier League champion with City in 2012 and 2014, the former goalkeeper is not swayed by fixture lists. His argument centres on the sheer quality running through City’s squad. “I don’t care who Arsenal will lose to, I look at Man City and their spine is so long,” he said. Hart namechecked Gianluigi Donnarumma, Rodri, Bernardo Silva, and Haaland as the backbone of a team built to absorb pressure and deliver when it matters most. “That is the spine I want to be part of,” he added. “I think they will do whatever needs to be done.”
Hart’s logic is not without merit. City have won the title in far tighter circumstances. Their experience of nerve-shredding run-ins is unmatched in English football over the past decade.
What Arteta’s squad management could decide between now and May
One detail that has not received enough attention : Mikel Arteta’s ability to rotate and protect key players over the remaining weeks. Redknapp made the point explicitly — City’s condensed programme leaves Pep Guardiola with tougher selection calls, while Arteta can afford to manage minutes more strategically. That translates directly into fresher legs for decisive matches.
Across a full season, Arsenal have shown they can grind results in difficult away fixtures without burning out their first-choice XI. The contrast with City, who must deal with European commitments stacking up alongside league duties, is a genuine structural advantage for the Gunners. Over three to four remaining gameweeks, even a 10% drop in physical output at City could be the difference.
Frankly, the psychological weight of chasing cannot be underestimated either. Merson put it bluntly : knowing you must win, rather than playing with confidence, changes how a team approaches every single ball. Arsenal are playing with belief right now. That, combined with a kinder run of fixtures and a manager who counts every percentage point of recovery, makes them the side to back — cautiously, but clearly.
